Hiring two new staff to help Hamilton cope with extreme weather from climate change is included in the 2015 budget proposals of the city’s senior managers. The move comes as 2014 is confirmed as the hottest year on record by far, and a massive study published in the prestigious journal Nature has determined that continued mining of the Canadian tar sands is incompatible with global climate goals.
The Nature article builds on well-established conclusions that at two-thirds of the world’s known carbon fuels cannot be burned if earth is to have even a 50-50 chance of avoiding average warming of two Celsius degrees and its consequences. The authors used well-recognized economic models to identify the specific fossil fuel reserves that are “priced out of a world in which carbon emissions were strictly limited” and found that applies to 85 percent of Canada’s oil including virtually all of the tar sands.
The analysis still accepts that two-thirds of current global oil reserves and half of the natural gas will be burned, but declares 82 percent of coal off limits. These limits on fossil fuel use would be even higher if the authors had used the more common objective of a four-in-five chance of avoiding a 2C increase by cutting emissions of greenhouse gases.
As if in confirmation of the findings, slumping oil prices have already put tar sands expansion plans on hold, made most existing production unprofitable, and are calling into question multiple pipeline plans including Keystone XL and the $12 billion Energy East proposal that would cross six provinces including Ontario.
And these changes come as the federal government fights to avoid an international review of the environmental impacts of tar sands extraction. The science on that issue will be explored in detail in Hamilton this week when Dr John Smol delivers the tenth annual Spirit of Red Hill Valley lecture on Wednesday evening at First Unitarian Church starting at 7 pm.
The city’s climate change budget measure doesn’t address emission cuts but instead tries to tackle the other end of the equation – how to adapt to extreme weather events which have already imposed millions in damages in the Hamilton area. Current climate staffing consists of only one person who is also the city’s air quality coordinator and responsible for organizing the biannual Upwind Downwind conference.
“The requested change will allow for focused effort to be placed on climate change work, specifically on ‘adaptation’ actions. Impacts of climate change are demonstrated through extreme weather events (extreme heat, flooding, polar vortex cold snaps); the city needs to develop an action plan to adapt to these impacts,” states the budget document.
“The City’s ability to adapt to effects of climate change going forward can affect business continuity, job growth, and the overall economic prosperity of the City. Another financial benefit of undertaking climate change adaptation work is from a cost-containment perspective – by developing and implementing an adaptation action plan, the City will be mitigating costs paid out over time by preparing for the inevitable adverse effects caused by climate change.”
The proposal is one of several “economic growth enhancements” backed by senior staff – a departure from past practice of simply providing a list of possible spending additions and leaving it up to council to decide, with the usual result that most get rejected. The new approach has already been labelled “an unusual process” by east mountain councillor Tom Jackson during last week’s budget introduction, but it was defended by finance chief Mike Zegarac who stressed that “the recommended enhancements are very much aligned to that theme of economic growth and job prosperity.”
Zegarac also raised concerns about council’s depletion of city reserves to pay for expenses such as last year’s ice storm damage as part of a larger picture of a $3 billion infrastructure maintenance debt that is growing by nearly $200 million a year.